2.00 Worcester – Two Selections

This was something which came from a series of posts on the forum this morning. It involves the 2.00 Worcester.

First of all, there is a Blindingly Obvious Selection here; The Land Agent which is second rated, cracking value (it went off at 33/1 and over 100s on the exchanges). The reason for The Land Agent being a Blindingly Obvious Selection is that both the Class Differentials were over 17 and the Weight Differentials were over 14.

This means that the horse was certainly falling in Class and Weight and at the price on offer it was certainly value.

It didn’t win; it ran well, taking the lead twice, before running out of steam four fences out and then being pulled up.

But that’s not the end of our story.

Look further down the page and we see Irish Octave. At the time I looked at it it was 24s on the exchanges and with it being value at 16/1 there was fair amount of edge there (about fifty percent) but I rarely look so far down to the horses where the value is around 6%.

What made this horse interesting was the fact that the Differentials across all three sets of columns were good (apart from column ‘e’: last time weight drop) and they were almost enough in themselves to be a Blindingly Good Selection.

The Cls figure for the horse was a little over 22s, which is very high indeed. And, of course, the best in the race hence the underscore.

Wit, one of the members on the forum, backs horses similar to these. This is his b-c-dd-e selections system.

The rule for this is that the value in those four columns has to be positive and the Cls has to be underscored (the best in the race). This horse failed that selection rule because the Last Race Weight Differential was zero (which was similar to Bazooka recently).

If it wasn’t for the last column being zero then Wit would have posted this on the forum.

However, given that the differentials were good and the Cls value was excellent it was pointed out as a second selection to The Land Agent. I had even placed the pair of them in an Exacta along with two win bets. These bets were announced on the forum and I am pleased that at least three others followed suit.

Irish Octave won at 16/1.

Bazooka

What was nearly one of Wit`s b-c-dd-e selections was the second rated in the FFos Las 5.00 race.

Bazooka was only just behind the top rated and would have been one of Wit`s selections if one of the four columns (b-c-dd-e) wasn`t a zero. Nonetheless the set of figures are overall rather good.

It had the best RAdj and Cls figures in the race which is a positive.

Value price was 3/1 and it was available on the exchanges at 24s when I went on, which was about twenty minutes before the off. Looking at the ratings it was clearly overpriced and was deserving of following.

It won at 12/1 to official SP.

Mark`s selections had it listed as well which was good as well. But it`s nice to be able to find a winner by just looking at the ratings.

Four Blindingly Obvious Selections

Last night, just before midnight, I posted the following concerning the racing today.

Musselburgh 3.45 has NOVA SCOTIA as a very possible Blindingly Obvious (BO) selection. The one worry is Jonny Delta who is dropping massively in class and weight. But at over 20s on offer for New Scotland I am happy to take that.

Musselburgh 5.15 has BRENDAN as another BO and Wit will be along shortly to select the same.

A lower priced BO selection is top rated PRIMENORA in the Nottingham 6.50. Not often one sees these as top rated and I will be on this one for sure.

Another one of Wit`s selections will be QUAY POINT in the 8.50 which is second rated and another Blindingly Obvious selection.

So, that`s it for me. Four of these today.

The first of these was actually named Nova Scuola, was unplaced but the highlighted danger horse, Jonny Delta won at 7/2 but early prices could have had it at 5/1 in the late morning.

In the next Brendan was third at 28/1 and wasn’t too far off being less than two lengths behind the winner. Primenora came in a disappointing sixth.

But, the fourth selection, Quay Point, went off at 20/1 and was available at over 50s before the off on the exchanges (the Betfair SP was in the low 30s) and won by over three lengths.

As the name suggests: Blindingly Obvious.

FAQ: What Time Do The Ratings Get Posted To The Site?

This simply depends on how much processing work I have to do to prepare the ratings before uploading them to the site.

On a typical day, the data will have been collated by about six or seven o’clock in the evening and then the whole process will take no less than three hours if there are no problems.

Some days it has been known to get the data uploaded to the site by a quarter past eight but this is rare and can only be achieved if I start at the earliest opportunity, that there are few meetings and the horses have, collectively, little form and, of course, that the data run runs smoothly.

The Friday and Saturday meets are usually the slowest to prepare as there will be more meetings, even more in the summer as there’s more flat racing. And Bank Holidays could take until the early hours to finish the process: Boxing Day, for example, has been known to take me over twelve hours!

This doesn’t take into account any problems that may be found on the way, either with the code or the data. This could delay the process by any amount of time and, of course, if the internet goes down for any reason then there is going to be a major problem.

The data is uploaded rather than eMailed for the simple reason that there’s plenty of it produced each evening. The PDF files weigh in at a couple of megabytes for each, the CSV file is about a megabyte and there’s hundreds, and I do mean hundreds, of smaller xml files which are prepared and are available for download. Putting this lot into a regular eMail regularly is going to be a major headache and something that I am not going to do.

There is one exception to the above when I will eMail the data and that is when the web site, the one you’re reading now, goes down for whatever reason. If I am unable to upload the data to the website then I will post the CSV and the PDF files to the Discussion Group along with the some of the xml files. This will only happen in an emergency. It’s not a neat solution but it ensures that we don’t lose a day’s racing data.

Blindingly Obvious Selection: Lingfield 6.45

There’s not been one for these for a while but one appeared today.

Our Cillia has five year Class and Weight Differentials (columns b and c) of 11.0 and 16.0 and for the one year Class and Weight Differentials (columns ch and d) of also 11.0 and 16.0. And also it had a one race set of differentials (columns dd and e) of 10.6 and 12.0 .

Compare with the rest of the entrants in the race: these figures are miles ahead of the rest.

Our Cillia won at 20/1, though the Betfair SP was 32 but it was available to back at up to 50s up to ten minutes before the off.

The comment in the Racing Post has this to say about the horse’s performance in the race: Hampered at start and pushed sideways, lost ground, held up in rear, stealthy progress from well off the pace 4f out, shaken up and took closer order in centre from 3f out, soon ridden, lead over 1f out, bounded clear final 150yds, readily (op 25/1).

Very much Blindingly Obvious, without a doubt.

UK Horse Racing’s Systems Indicators

What do these columns mean on the summary page of the ratings?

The above image comes from the Market Rasen 2.55, a handicap chase, on the 9th of July 2017 which hasn’t set off yet and won’t do so for a few hours. So it gives me a little while to talk about this race without knowledge of the result.

The first thing is that the name is slightly misleading; there are no system or alarm indicators here. This needs to be changed and may well do so within the next few days. But what we do have a handy table of a horse’s previous Class, Weight and Race figures.

Column ‘a’
This is the last run’s class according to the BHA’s classification figures. This is only included because it may indicate how a horse may appear in the betting as a horse ‘rising in class’ (pinch of salt applied for) may have a good price in the markets. Those accustomed to the UKHR ratings will know that the BHA class figures have no impact nor input into our handicapping procedures whatsoever.

Column ‘b’
This is the horse’s Five Year Class Differential.

Column ‘c’
This is the horse’s Five Year Weight Differential.

Column ‘ch’
This is the horse’s One Year Class Differential.

Column ‘d’
This is the horse’s One Year Weight Differential.

Column ‘dd’
This is the horse’s One Race Class Differential, in other words the rise/drop in class compared to its previous race.

Column ‘e’
This is the horse’s One Race Weight Differential.

Column ‘f’
This gives the Race figure of the horse’s last run. This Race figure is awarded to how well a horse ran last time; the bigger the Race value the better it ran. This field, therefore, is a handy and quick way to compare how each of them ran last time out.

What on earth is this column naming scheme?
It’s the Welsh alphabet.

A quick look at the race.
The race, according the BHA classification is a class 4 race. But look at the figures for the top rated horse, Brody Bleu. Its last race was, supposedly, a class 6 race but look at the class differentials: the five year class differential has it dropping in class and if we go to column dd it’s rising in class by only six points since its last race and yet it’s going up two BHA bands. Little wonder the price looks to be good.

Sixth rated Vic’s Last Stand has three idential pairs of differentials. This will be because it’s run only the one chase before and this was within the last twelve months. Compare that to bottom rated Viking Ridge which has the middle pair of differentials given as zero. Viking Ridge, therefore, hasn’t raced in the past year.

Vick’s Last Stand does have an interesting set of figures though. A massive drop in class but an almighty rise in weights. If the handicapper has this wrong and the weight increase is too lenient then this could be the race for him, especially as his Race figure in the last column is 94 and there’s only three other horses with a higher last Race figure.

These three horses are within the top four rated in the race: Brody Bleu, Gold Ingot and Minella Forfitness.

One could look at this table and try to fashion a story of how each horse has been handicapped more ruthlessly than others. For example, Highbury High is dropping in both class and weight since last time but didn’t run too well in that previous race. Will today’s drop in both class and weight (which is certainly not reflected in the BHA class figures) be beneficial to him and at a price which is ‘value’ at the time of writing it’s certainly going to be of interest.

Something similar could be said for Chankilo whose drop in class last time is almost five pounds better than the overall rise in class over the last year and its previous Race figure is better than Highbury High’s.

This is the sort of thing that one could see when one is looking at this table and, of course, this is where we tend to look for the Blinding Obvious Selections.

Extra Indicator – Last Race Run

As from tomorrow there will be a new indicator on each race’s summary page within the various PDF files.

This example (Doncaster 2.00, 30th June, 2017) belows shows the new indicator.

Two small differences. The first is purely cosmetic and this is that the title row of the indicator table is now underlined for improved clarity.

The second change is that we now have a column ‘f’. This shows the horse’s Last Race Rating (i.e. how well it ran in its last race) so we can compare easily this information. In the above example, column ‘f’ is highlighted.

As AlanJ put it on the forum for this race:
2.00 Eirene 11/4. 117 race1runago is impressive and the only doubt is the Hannon horse.

Eirene ended up being the winning favourite of the race. Alan got on at 100/30 before Eirene won at 5/2.

The Last Race Rating is a powerful indicator and it’s a good comparitive and one that I will be looking at more closely now that this on the front page of each summary rating.

Three Well Bred Maidens

The first is from the (all too) early 1.35 Musselburgh.
It’s a maiden race and, as ever, the best way to look at these is via the Koulds Scores method.

Two horses stand out here with the Koulds Scores which looks at the histories of each horse’s siblings which are Roland Rocks and Jive Lady which have Scores of 17 and 12 respectively.
Note that no other horse in the race has any Koulds Scores at all which means that all of the siblings of the other horses are, frankly, quite poor. Not one sibling of the other horses has managed to win anything which is quite astonishing.
So, it’s now easy to find an angle into this maiden race: one quite simply has to back both Roland Rocks and Jive Lady.
The result?

If one had the foresight to do the Exacta then that would have paid out at over £200 for a £1 stake!
I managed to get on at SP just before the off and, thus, made nineteen points on that race bagging Roland Rocks at 20/1.
On the forum I then pointed out two more maiden races where the Koulds Scores indicated something special.
The next up was the 3.05 at Downpatrick.

Again two horses spring out here. The first was Thinkinginmysleep and the second being Caerleon Kate.
Having a little more time this time (having racing at just past half past one in the afternoon is far too early, one hasn’t got rid of the taste of toothpaste by then) I placed SPs on Betfair and getting over 360 on Caerleon Kate and over 100 on Thinkinginmysleep.
Caerleon went odds on in the photo and having seen so many photos go against me, as this one did, I decided to lay at evens and I came out with a nice winner, after Betfair commission, at 177/1.

Which isn’t too bad for a horse that didn’t win.
Third race was the 4.40 at York and again two more stood out in this maiden.

As the prices didn’t look like they wouldn’t drift I took the prices early on and backing Dom Pepe and International Man at 13s and 21 on Betfair, respectively.
Both of these came down in price before the off before International Man won at 13/2.

So there you have it. Three Well Bred Maidens and an extremely profitable day indeed.

Laying side of UK Horse Racing has now been restored

It took a while but the laying side of UK Horse Racing has now been restored.
The Lay-0, which are a vital sub-set of the Unlikely Winners, have been restored back to life along with the Lay-1 selections, which are in themselves a sub-set of the Less Unlikely Winners.
These four laying systems or notifications are now restored after a few problems when the site moved from the http protocol to the more secure https protocol.
Additionally, the Value Lays have been restored as well.