Fairyhouse 5.10

Having been out all day running errands I was unable to look at the ratings until the close of play today. At least doing so I could sit down and go through the ratings and do some paper trading to see how I would have fared manually.
Now, some of you may scream that I am ‘after timing’ but this isn’t for two reasons; first is that anything produced after the event is for post-mortem purposes only and it’s always good to look for reasons why something should be backed or avoided. The second reason why this isn’t after-timing is that, quite simply, I wasn’t on it.
So, there I was looking for races with decent form and flipping through the Ascot meeting. Nothing. Cork. Nothing. Doncaster. Nothing. And then going through the Fairhouse ratings: nothing, nothing, nothing and, then in the 5.10 we have this for the handicap hurdle.

Look at the tables on that page (reprinted above). The Five Year Class Differentials have one horse which stands out with a massive Class Differential of 20.1. The horse`s Weight Differential is positive at 5.3. Nothing else in the five year table looks anything like that.
In the 1 Year Class Differential table the same horse has the same data. However, Simple Steps appears with a Class Differential of 18.5 which is impressive. However, the Weight Differential neutralises that with a minus twenty two.
The horse which I refer to just stands out. Its name is AA BEE SEE, wins impressively by five and a half lengths at 14/1.
This is what I call Blindingly Obvious.

Blindingly Obvious

Yesterday’s post, concerning the 4.20 race at Wetherby, is what we have described on the site as a "Blindingly Obvious" selection.
More information on these are given here in this article.
Please be aware that when one is reading the article that the Differentials are the Five Year Differentials. When the article was written the 1 Year Differentials hadn’t yet been developed.

31st March: 4.20 Wetherby

Today there’s been little in the way of anything interesting in the results. There’s the usual range of horses winning at various low prices, one winning at an incredibly low 1/40 on (a hefty Rule-4 may have been a significant factor with this one) and then there’s one horse, Suggestion, which won at 16/1 in the 4.20 Wetherby.
In a day when the racing has been somewhat less than inspiring it’s worth looking to see if this horse could have been found in the ratings and, as ever, the first place of call is always the Differential figures.
Turning to page 93 of the Wetherby ratings we see the following.

Look at the Class Differentials (either one year or five year) for this race and four horses have a Class Differential of above 10. One of these is the 16/1 winner, Suggestion. Right down the foot of the ratings but it’s got a Class Differential of 12.3. This is the third highest in the race. The others in the same race with an interesting Class Differential are the top rated Our Delboy, the third rated Focaccia and the bottom rated Mortems Leam. Now, look at Suggestion’s weight differential; it’s positive. Not by much, I grant you, but positive none the less.
The Weight Differentials of the other three are -9.7, -15.0 and -8.3. These horses could be said to be swapping class for weight whereas Suggestion is dropping in both class (by quite a bit) and weight (a little).
The Differentials for Class and for Weight have always been of interest and they’re always a good place to start to look when there’s one horse in a race with such figures as Suggestion’s and there’s value to be had.

A Bullet Dodged

In December some of you may recall some problems we were starting to have with our old web hosts, 186k.
After a lot of work, and dragging in Nominet UK to intercede, we finally moved the site and all the domains to our new hosts.
It seems that the news yesterday afternoon was that 186k underwent Total Inability To Supply Usual Performance and that most, if not all, of their sites and names fell off the internet.
Thankfully, we jumped ship just in time and this looked like a bullet that we dodged.

Hello, World\n

Welcome to the new UK Horse Racing blog.
This is an experiment to see if I can maintain a news section and to see if I can master the hidden arts of WordPress.
So, please do be alarmed if, over the next few weeks if this section starts to look particularly odd. If it does then blame it on ineptitude. That normally works around here.