The Data Analysis Tool (DA Tool) has finally finished whirring and something like the following appears.
The two graphs show the first few months of the data run but the important thing is that the DA Tool has changed view so we know it’s finished.
So, let’s have a look at the report which is, of course, the whole purpose of the DA Tool run.
If you click on the Logs tab you will see something like this.
These are a list of all of the runs done by the DA Tool. The columns are self explanatory but it’s the ‘Text Filename’ column that is of interest here.
If you click on the top-most link in that column then the Report you’ve just generated is opened in a text editor (usually Notepad, unless you’ve opted for a better text editor). The lines you see crossed out don’t exist on your machine so you can’t click on them.
Anyway, click on the link and then the report file opens like this:
What this is telling us is that the run for whichever criteria we have chosen (we’ll come to that in a bit) has the following.
There are over 27,000 runs in the twenty five months which satisfy the requirements, of which just over 7,200 were winners. The strike rate of this is a healthy 26%. But after a 5% commission the Betfair SP gave us a loss of 1,175 points or a ROI of minus 4.2%.
Obviously nothing to shout home about but we can see further down (look at line 45 of the report) that the All Weather gave us most of the loss. So already two things should spring to mind: first that perhaps betting at the Betfair Starting Price may not be the best thing to do (this is something that we at UK Horse Racing already know) and, secondly, that the All Weather is perhaps something to look at carefully.
The next column is the Proportional Staking Bank. We can see from the top row that the bank started off with 100 points and that we’re backing 1% of the current bank per bet.
This is all set up here in the Control block of the first page of the DA Tool:
The light blue section is where you change things, if you wish. And you can see that you can set up the Betfair Commission rate in the first instance. The Stake % tells us what percentage stake we’re doing from the Proportional Bank (which is starting off with 100 units) and to stop run-away stakes of millions of points we’ve got the stake capped with the ‘Max Stake’ value.
At the foot of the report is an interesting collection of sections which tells us which of the sub-filtered suggestions are profitable every year or loss-making every year.
The DA Tool can be configured to run in slightly different ways with the Run Time Controls section.
The first one, if checked, runs an analysis on horses to be Placed rather than To Win. Normally one would leave this cleared. The next one is simply an option of are we looking to Back or to Lay?
The next two tell us how we wish the report file to be exported. If we rather have it exported to an HTML document (don’t ask me why you would wish this, but it was once requested and I foolishly agreed) and if one would wish to export to a CSV document. This latter option is very useful for those who wish to filter on the results.
Associated with this is the ‘Complete Dump’ option (or, what we call “The Middlesbrough Option”) which dumps all of the runners which fit the requirements into a massive CSV file. I cannot over emphasise the word ‘massive’ here. Be warned.
The Lay To Risk One Point is an option for laying. And then there’s the export for the The Staking Machine, a third party application. I haven’t used The Staking Machine in, quite literally, decades so I don’t even know if the data produced is compatible or not any longer. One day, expect that someone will tell me so if it doesn’t.
All of these output files are sent off to the Output folder.
Now all of this so far is good but we don’t know yet what we’ve analysed. But, it’s a start and but all we need to know how is to create the analysis that we need and that comes up in the next lesson.
But, for now, it may interest you in knowing that Lesson 01’s report is for the Top Rated Horse in each race.
Why did I choose that? Well, I had to start off with something and that seems a good place to start. The next lessons will teach you how to modify this request and, then, how to create the reports that you want.
See you in Lesson 3…