Cherry Picking – 26th April 2018

By | 26th April 2018

On the forum, late this morning, I posted the following cherry picked selections.

The first Cherry Pick has been identified in the 1.30 at Beverley. The second rated Acclaim The Nation isn`t running and so this means that the third rated RAPID APPLAUSE looks even better to my eyes. Five underscores including an excellent Cls and WinF figures. I have taken 13.5 on the exchanges.

In the Warwick 3.55 the trainer, T Symonds, has three horses out in this one. The one that takes my eye is the third rated FRANKLY SPEAKING. Running at a massive 20 lbs lower than the race weight average and has good Spd figures. And, my favourite for a low weight horse: a claimer on board. I have no doubt about backing this one and have taken it at 17.0.

I have additionally taken place positions on these two too.

To explain why I have made these two selections let’s have a look at the Summary Ratings for these two horses.

Beverley 1.30

First of all, it must be noted that the second rated horse, Acclaim The Nation, wasn’t running. This was one that I was first going to look at because of the massive draw bias.

But look at the now second-rated Rapid Applause. There’s underscores all over for this horse. Raw and RAdj, two of the strongest fields, are underscored. The Jockey field, not as strong, is underscored and any underscore always helps.

Now, one has to look at the context of these underscores within the race. Are these underscores just slightly higher figures or are these significantly larger than the values in the same fields with the other horses? Well, I would say that the Raw underscore is quite a bit larger than the second best Raw (this is for Bogart which had a great draw and came in third). The RAdj underscore wasn’t as expressive as the Raw as there isn’t much between Rapid Applause’s RAdj figure and the top rated Bahuta Acha.

Then we come to the Cls field. We’ve now got a value here of 13.7 which is miles higher than the next highest Cls figure of 8.1; so it’s safe to say that in the context of this race this is a standout figure.

The next column over, WinF, has another underscore: 13.3 against the top rated’s 6.8 (the non-runner has a slightly higher figure, but as it’s a non-runner we ignore that). So, again, within the context of this race this stands out.

The value price is 9/1 and as the price at the moment of looking was 13.5 I had no hesitation in backing it. Rapid Applause won at a final price of 8/1 by almost two lengths.

This is the Summary rating for the second selection.

Warwick 3.55

Again, another third rated selection, this time Frankly Speaking.

What stands out is the massive Spd figure of 18.6 which is double that of Dawn Herald’s 9.0 (which again is double that of the next best figure). The TrForm figure of 132 for the trainer is far, far ahead of the other trainers’ TrForm figures. This is starting to stand out significantly for me.

Then the horse’s weight is something to note. Frankly Speaking’s weight is twenty pounds lighter than the average weight of the field. And, this is one of my favourite bits of icing on the cake: there’s a claimer on board. I love it when I see a horse with underscores that are significant, is low in weight and with a claimer to bring it down further. It helps to convince me that this horse has a good chance of making a fist of it.

Well, I backed it at 17s to win and also to place. It didn’t win but was just held off in the run in to come second at 9/1. The place was good, though, and a small profit was made on the race.

Reading the race report it seems to suggest that if Frankly Speaking didn’t make a mistake going over the last then he could have held on.

But, the point was that it was still a good Cherry Pick and to have one win and one come second shows what one can do reading the ratings.

Tomorrow is a Friday so there won’t be any Cherry Picks from me until, perhaps, Sunday as I don’t like to look for these on busy days.