This is how the ratings looked for this race today over at Limerick.
On the forum this morning I posted the following.
The only one that I like as a manual selection is BALLEA FOX in the 4.20 Limerick. This is mostly down to the price and the decent class figure and the better than average differentials. The fact that a claimer is on board to drive the weight down even further is also a positive.
I think that my explanation says what I have been always been looking for in these selections.
Apart from the bottom rated, the field is separated in this handicap by only eleven pounds. Ballea Fox has the best Cls in the race: an impressive 13.0, but not only that the differentials were rather interesting. These are visible in the bottom table and all six differential columns are positive and, overall, this horse has perhaps the best set in the race.
As I mentioned in the quote above, what interests me is that the horse is already one of the lightest in the race but a claimer is placed on board to lighten the load even further. When this happens I sit up and take note.
So far, so good. I backed the horse and it won by three lengths. But this is where I made a big mistake.
The price earlier today was 100s on Betfair. I make the incorrect assumption that the horse would drift further so I put a bet on to Betfair SP and went out in the garden to sit out in the warm sun. What I didn’t allow for was that this was clearly the a target for a plunge and it went off at 28s. My mistake? To think that 100/1 wasn’t enough.
But, at least I found it and I backed it and it really made my day. It could have, and should have, really, really made my day.