Continuing from yesterday’s Reading The Ratings I decided to look at Market Rasen today to see what stood out.
I posted on the forum my thoughts on two races. The other races either was a National Hunt Flat which never strikes me as a sensible betting medium or had only four or five runners.
Regarding races with small fields it’s not usually a long job to look at the outsiders and to see if there’s any good reason to back them. Today there were two such races and neither offered anything in terms of the outsiders. So, then that left three races, one of which I couldn’t find anything of interest in and so I looked into the following two.
Two horses stood out. The first is the quite obvious top rated Ballinslea Bridge which was presented at being nineteen pounds clear at the top of the ratings. Add to that three underscores, a relatively low weight and a good Cls score and it really stands out.
The only problem was that the price when I looked was too low to back. It did go off at 2/1, which was above the value price. If I had seen that then I would have been on that one.
As it happens I found Little Pippin and followed it because it had positive differential figures (bottom table) in each column and was the only horse which did so. Little Pippin had a claimer on board and I have noted that, a few times in the past, when there is a set-up like this then the horse may well be lined up for this race. The TrForm (trainer form) was the second highest in the race and it being available for over three digits on the exchanges I decided that it was worth a bet.
As we know it didn’t win (that honour went to the top rated) and all we can say about the run is that it fought hard to maintain its last position throughout. Not exactly a glowing success but, not to worry, these are the bets that I am happy to take.
The next race, the 1.00, was another tight handicap. Apart from the bottom rated horse all the remainder of the field was within twelve and a bit pounds of each other. A perfect set-up for searching for a good priced winner.
Two stood out here. It’s Obvious, half way down and the penultimate, Itsnoneofurbusiness.
It’s Obvious had good positive Class Differentials and the best Cls score of the race and was a good price on the exchanges and went off at 14/1, the official price, which matched the value price and came fourth.
Further down we have the other selection. The Class Differentials weren’t so high as those of It’s Obvious but, on the other hand, the Weight Differentials were far better. The Cls figure was also high, second to It’s Obvious’ figure. Add in another underscore and a couple of emboldended fields and this one looked good.
The top rated horse, One Of Us, was withdrawn, much to my annoyance as it presented us with a massive 25% Rule 4 deduction. This is one of the dangers of value betting; if a overly hot favourite is withdrawn then the rest of the field is subject to an over exaggerated deduction.
Whether the withdrawn horse would have won or not is always open to discussion but the fact that Itsnoneofurbusiness on by five lengths at 16/1 and was available at 24s just before the off on the exchanges.
And, so, these were the three selections made today and given on the forum before each of the races. Two lost and one won at 16/1. And all from simply Reading The Ratings.