It’s all Mark’s fault. It was a quiet day’s racing and Ayr has been called off, vanishing under a carpet of thick Scots snow and, apart from Kempton Park in the evening only what initially appeared to be a scruffy meeting at Hereford was left in the afternoon.
Mark had time on his hands and decided to have a look at the Hereford meeting because that was the sort of meeting where outsiders could be winkled out and backed with a little effort.
And, not one to feel left out: I decided to join in with a few thoughts of my own. So, having settled down in front of a blazing fire I wrote some thoughts on the forum for three races at Hereford.
This race is a tight handicap, my favourite type, because quite simply the ratings suggest that almost anything could win and, therefore, it’s worth looking a little deeper. Two horses stood out for me.
The first is Odello which stood out because not only did it have three underscores but also the Cls figure was emboldened and was high. On top of that the Class Differentials in the bottom table suggested that it was ‘boxing above its weight’ by racing in a race class that was lower than it was used to.
The other was the outsider (and I do mean ‘outsider’), Ring Minella. That was available on the exchanges at over 100s and simply had to be backed. This had the best Cls rating at 26.9. The Class Differentials were good and the last race Race value of 92 was the highest in the race.
I didn’t back Odello as the price available was less than the value price. In the end Odello came in second and Ring Minella came in third at 50/1.
The 3.05 suggested two horses to me. In hindsight, I am not overwhelmingly happy with one of the selections but both will be mentioned here as both were backed.
The first of these two was Dubawi Island. Half way down the ratings in another tight race it had a couple of underscores and it was certainly value at the price. This, looking back, wasn’t as strong as I had thought yesterday but that could simply be down to hindsight. Having the best RAdj and Cls figures in the race were no problem.
The second horse is the next one in the ratings, Cougar Kid. The WtD figure tells us that it was running twenty pounds lighter than the average weight in the race and on soft going that had to be noted. I also like it when a claimer is put on board to really drive home the weight advantage. No underscores but a couple of emboldended figures: TrForm and Spd. The latter being rated at 24.5.
Cougar Kid was available at the time of making the post at over 16s on the exchanges and, so I was happy to take that. It won by seven lengths at 12/1.
The last race that I looked at for Hereford was the 3.40.
Two horses jumped out, but neither had a decent enough price and as I am a great believer in value betting I couldn’t be on either.
The first in this (again) tight handicap was Cualto Des Loges. Four underscores and good differentials but the price was poor compared to the value price demanded. It went off at 4/1 but I would need at least 11s before I got interested. It didn’t finish unlike the second horses that stood out for me, Yorgonnahearmeroar, near the foot of the ratings.
One underscore, the Cls, but this stood out for being comparatively high if one looks at the Cls column of the rest of the race. Differentials not bad but it needed to be higher than the price on offer.
Yes, it won at 8/1 but there was no way that I was going to back it at that price.
The three races were what I had looked at for Hereford and had posted before the races started and they would have been very profitable if the three selections that made value were backed.
This was yet another example of simply Reading The Ratings to see what stood out.