12th November – FFos Las 4.10

By | 12th November 2017

This is after the event, I know, but the point again is to share what I am looking at and this is another which is almost a Blindingly Obvious Selection but one that’s not quite so obvious.

It takes place in the last race, the 4.10 at FFos Las and here’s the ratings summary sheet for this race.

First of all, the two horses which are highlighted didn’t run. This means that their combined probabilities of about 18% will be returned back to ‘the pot’ and so every other horses’ chances will have increased a little: soaking up these two horses’ chances, if you like.

Looking at the columns at the bottom, I tend to examine the two ‘one year’ columns first. These are columns ‘ch’ and ‘d’. I have no idea why I always look at these two first, perhaps it’s just simply that my eye falls on this central column first. It’s become a habit but, nonetheless, this is where I happen to look first.

Straight away two horses here stand out, assuming that we ignore the two non-runners, these being Theatre Stage and Timely Gift.

Theatre Stage has nice one year class differentials of 10.9 and the weight differential of -0.5 isn’t that an issue. So, it’s interesting and so is the bottom rated Timely Gift.

Timely Gift’s figures for the one year differentials are 12.3 and 9.3 for the class and the weight differentials, respectively. These two horses, when compared to the rest of the field, stand out but Timely Gift’s stand out most of all.

Now Princess Roania, the second rated, has two positive one year differentials but a pair at 2.7 and 1.0 isn’t exactly setting the world afire. This is why I have ignored it for this race.

So, we’re still looking at these two horses.

If we look at the five year differentials we have the same story as the one year. So, we carry on and we look at the last race differentials. Which is another way of looking to see how this run compares to the previous run.

Theatre Stage is dropping in class by almost ten pounds but is giving most of that back with eight pounds in weight. That’s certainly not a great positive.

Timely Gift is rising in class by only half a pound. That’s nothing considering the race class is 88 pounds. But most importantly it’s dropping in weight by nineteen pounds. This is another positive.

Looking at the figure for both of these horses we see that Theatre Stage’s Cls rating is 12.0 and Timely Gift’s is 11.2. Nothing much in it there.

If we look at the prices of these horses and compare the prices to their value figures we can see that the value price of Theatre Stage is 9/2 (okay, it will be slightly less now that we’ve had two non-runners, so it may be about 4/1 as value) and the value of Timely Gift is 11/1. That could be adjusted down to something like 10/1.

But it’s the prices that tell the tale. Theatre Stage, whose value was about 4/1, was going off at odds on whereas Timely Gift was around 25/1 on the exchanges before the off.

So even before we got to the prices, the differentials were pointing to the bottom rated horse and only that horse. When we could see that there was good value to be had on Timely Gift then it was a horse that had to be backed.

Of course, not all will win but at odds like this and when there’s value in the pocket it makes sense to look for these.

Theatre Stage came fifth at 8/11 whilst Timely Gift won at 14/1 (23s on the exchanges). The second horse home, Flanagan’s Field, was the top rated selection which was value as the price at SP was 6/1. I was also on this horse and, no, I didn’t do the Exacta which, in hindsight, was the wise thing to do especially as it paid out at £73.40