This was something which came from a series of posts on the forum this morning. It involves the 2.00 Worcester.
First of all, there is a Blindingly Obvious Selection here; The Land Agent which is second rated, cracking value (it went off at 33/1 and over 100s on the exchanges). The reason for The Land Agent being a Blindingly Obvious Selection is that both the Class Differentials were over 17 and the Weight Differentials were over 14.
This means that the horse was certainly falling in Class and Weight and at the price on offer it was certainly value.
It didn’t win; it ran well, taking the lead twice, before running out of steam four fences out and then being pulled up.
But that’s not the end of our story.
Look further down the page and we see Irish Octave. At the time I looked at it it was 24s on the exchanges and with it being value at 16/1 there was fair amount of edge there (about fifty percent) but I rarely look so far down to the horses where the value is around 6%.
What made this horse interesting was the fact that the Differentials across all three sets of columns were good (apart from column ‘e’: last time weight drop) and they were almost enough in themselves to be a Blindingly Good Selection.
The Cls figure for the horse was a little over 22s, which is very high indeed. And, of course, the best in the race hence the underscore.
Wit, one of the members on the forum, backs horses similar to these. This is his b-c-dd-e selections system.
The rule for this is that the value in those four columns has to be positive and the Cls has to be underscored (the best in the race). This horse failed that selection rule because the Last Race Weight Differential was zero (which was similar to Bazooka recently).
If it wasn’t for the last column being zero then Wit would have posted this on the forum.
However, given that the differentials were good and the Cls value was excellent it was pointed out as a second selection to The Land Agent. I had even placed the pair of them in an Exacta along with two win bets. These bets were announced on the forum and I am pleased that at least three others followed suit.
Irish Octave won at 16/1.