Before I start, a disclaimer: I wasn’t on this one at all and it was only when I did the post-mortem for this race that something stood out concerning the winning horse. So, see this post as a form of discussion on that race and how the winner could have been spotted.
First, here’s the summary sheet displaying the race with some notes added.
What follows is clearly going to be a variant of the Blindingly Obvious selection.
First of all, this is very obviously a tight handicap. There’s less than eight pounds between the top rated and the bottom rated. In a race like this anything can surely win and there’s value to be had somewhere.
Secondly look at the differential figures for the horses and the bottom rated and the one of the horses with positives for the five year and the last race differentials is bottom rated Bahkit.
Not only does this horse have positive differentials for these two time intervals its differentials are the best in the field. The only negative is that it didn’t run for a year but in this day and age with advanced training techniques this isn’t necessarily an issue and, besides, those who think that it is an issue will only help to push the price out further.
So, with a moment or two of looking at the race we’ve found ourselves an interesting horse which went on to win.
In hindsight, this was a Blindingly Obvious horse and with a little more analysis of the race it should have been spotted.