Normally the first day of a competition has only a smattering of small priced winners but nothing could have prepared any of us what followed today.
In the first race a number of us, myself, Herby & Mark, had selected the top rated in the first race: Dark Red. Dark Red was the first past the post but was disqualified by the stewards in the following Inquiry. Thankfully, a number of us managed to back it in Real Life from prices anything up from the SP of 12/1 up to 20/1 earlier on.
I managed to bag another top rated winner later on in the day and that would have left me in a good position after day one and normally would have had me in great stead for the rest of the competition.
But, no-one, not even he, had expected Wit to bag a 100/1 winner in the maiden.
Before the day started Wit noted on the forum that had one backed the bottom rated in every race during the previous two Glorious Goodwood Festivals then there would be one, or more, outsiders coming in sufficient to win the tournaments. Therefore, he said that he would be doing the same again this year.
Come the 4.10 maiden and Wit’s plan came to fruition with Thechildrenstrust winning at 100/1. Moreover, those who backed it to Betfair’s SP, as did Wit, would have been more than pleased with the 500s on offer.
So, hat’s off to Wit for that audacious selection that puts him eighty points clear in the competition after the first day!
Let’s look at this race again.
Looking at this maiden, there are fourteen runners but only eight of these have run before. This means that, basically, half of the field have no form whatsoever. And five of those eight have only run the once.
So this means that this race has only three horses with any meaningful form, assuming that we accept that horses with two runs under their belt has ‘form’.
We don’t even know how many of those six unraced horses have hearts and lungs of a South Shields pit-pony or whether they’re a plutonium Pegasus powerhouse. Apart from the top rated the range of the rating values of these horses is just over eleven pounds.
And, yet, someone goes onto Betfair and offers these total unknown horses at 500/1. This in itself is utter insanity and there’s nothing but congratulations going up to those, like Wit, who realise that these prices are just utterly and totally wrong.
Yes, more work needs to be done to analyse maidens in Festival meetings where there’s no form.
Back to the competition. There’s a few days left and this means now we’re all going to find people looking all over the field for high priced horses which may have a chance of getting home. Now we can’t be looking for 3/1 winners to get us the winning score: we’re going to need a lot of 40/1 horses coming home!
The next few days are going to be great fun indeed.
Well done, Wit.