31st March: 4.20 Wetherby

By | 31st March 2017

Today there’s been little in the way of anything interesting in the results. There’s the usual range of horses winning at various low prices, one winning at an incredibly low 1/40 on (a hefty Rule-4 may have been a significant factor with this one) and then there’s one horse, Suggestion, which won at 16/1 in the 4.20 Wetherby.
In a day when the racing has been somewhat less than inspiring it’s worth looking to see if this horse could have been found in the ratings and, as ever, the first place of call is always the Differential figures.
Turning to page 93 of the Wetherby ratings we see the following.

Look at the Class Differentials (either one year or five year) for this race and four horses have a Class Differential of above 10. One of these is the 16/1 winner, Suggestion. Right down the foot of the ratings but it’s got a Class Differential of 12.3. This is the third highest in the race. The others in the same race with an interesting Class Differential are the top rated Our Delboy, the third rated Focaccia and the bottom rated Mortems Leam. Now, look at Suggestion’s weight differential; it’s positive. Not by much, I grant you, but positive none the less.
The Weight Differentials of the other three are -9.7, -15.0 and -8.3. These horses could be said to be swapping class for weight whereas Suggestion is dropping in both class (by quite a bit) and weight (a little).
The Differentials for Class and for Weight have always been of interest and they’re always a good place to start to look when there’s one horse in a race with such figures as Suggestion’s and there’s value to be had.