Ascot Competition

Day Three of the Ascot Competition is about to start.

Robulon is starting as the clear leader and with PeteH, myself, KES and Stevie is amongst the only ones to be guaranteed to finish Royal Ascot in profit, but with two days to go there’s plenty of time to catch up…

Three Well Bred Maidens

The first is from the (all too) early 1.35 Musselburgh.
It’s a maiden race and, as ever, the best way to look at these is via the Koulds Scores method.

Two horses stand out here with the Koulds Scores which looks at the histories of each horse’s siblings which are Roland Rocks and Jive Lady which have Scores of 17 and 12 respectively.
Note that no other horse in the race has any Koulds Scores at all which means that all of the siblings of the other horses are, frankly, quite poor. Not one sibling of the other horses has managed to win anything which is quite astonishing.
So, it’s now easy to find an angle into this maiden race: one quite simply has to back both Roland Rocks and Jive Lady.
The result?

If one had the foresight to do the Exacta then that would have paid out at over £200 for a £1 stake!
I managed to get on at SP just before the off and, thus, made nineteen points on that race bagging Roland Rocks at 20/1.
On the forum I then pointed out two more maiden races where the Koulds Scores indicated something special.
The next up was the 3.05 at Downpatrick.

Again two horses spring out here. The first was Thinkinginmysleep and the second being Caerleon Kate.
Having a little more time this time (having racing at just past half past one in the afternoon is far too early, one hasn’t got rid of the taste of toothpaste by then) I placed SPs on Betfair and getting over 360 on Caerleon Kate and over 100 on Thinkinginmysleep.
Caerleon went odds on in the photo and having seen so many photos go against me, as this one did, I decided to lay at evens and I came out with a nice winner, after Betfair commission, at 177/1.

Which isn’t too bad for a horse that didn’t win.
Third race was the 4.40 at York and again two more stood out in this maiden.

As the prices didn’t look like they wouldn’t drift I took the prices early on and backing Dom Pepe and International Man at 13s and 21 on Betfair, respectively.
Both of these came down in price before the off before International Man won at 13/2.

So there you have it. Three Well Bred Maidens and an extremely profitable day indeed.

Laying side of UK Horse Racing has now been restored

It took a while but the laying side of UK Horse Racing has now been restored.
The Lay-0, which are a vital sub-set of the Unlikely Winners, have been restored back to life along with the Lay-1 selections, which are in themselves a sub-set of the Less Unlikely Winners.
These four laying systems or notifications are now restored after a few problems when the site moved from the http protocol to the more secure https protocol.
Additionally, the Value Lays have been restored as well.

Southwell 7.50 – Blindingly Obvious Selection

Please excuse the lack of postings of late but we’re packing to move house so the blog has taken a bit of a back seat.
It was this morning when I had posted on the forum a few selections of my own and one member, Wit, pointed out that one of the three that I had posted was, in actual fact, a Blindingly Obvious Selection and was I aware of the fact?
Well, actually I wasn’t as I was up to my ears in packing boxes, bubblewrap and generally too much stuff remaining unpacked with too little time remaining; but I did have a look at the ratings and clearly this is what Wit saw.

Is there any doubt that Arboretum was a Blindingly Obvious Selection?
I already had one point on it from my own earlier selection process and I simply had to have another bite with the exchanges for a second point.
The result?

There you have it; another Blindingly Obvious Selection. When they pop up they really have to be backed, there’s no two ways about it.
Now, if you would excuse me: it’s time to get back to the packing…

Koulds Maiden

This one would have been a selection if the price was better.

The clear selection here would have been Dalton. But not at the price of 5/2 even though it won quite tidily by over three lengths. The favourite came in third, ten lengths behind.

So, even though no selection here this still goes to show that the principle is very much sound in such races.

Maiden with High Sire/Dam Score

Yet another example of a maiden race with little form to go at. This time in the Newmarket 4.10 today.

As you can see; one run amongst the lot of them and, therefore, no form data to go on.

But let’s look at the Koulds Score which is derived from our Sire/Dam data and there’s a different picture altogether.

The horse with the highest Koulds Score is Way Of Wisdom with a massive Koulds Score of 18. The next best was De Bruyne Horse with 5 points.

Way of Wisdom won at 5/1 though 11/2 was readily available and was indeed grabbed this morning.

These selections aren’t that common; first it’s best that the race is composed of horses which are nearly all previously unraced so that there’s no form and so everyone is guessing on the correct price and then, secondly, that there’s one horse with an eye-popping Koulds Score and, thirdly, that the price of that horse has to be worthwhile chasing. But they do crop up now and then at this time of year and are worth watching out for.

1000 Guineas: Newmarket 3.35

Today we have a horse that I have backed. It’s the top rated FAIR EVA as it looks good and is, most importantly, good value.

The ratings have it as value at 11/4 and this morning was available at 6/1 and drifted out to 15/2 and 8/1 but has more or less settled there. At least now, with a quarter of an hour before the off it doesn’t look as if a leg has fallen off. So, it’s good value and being top rated I am happy to be on it.

Looking at the Differentials; nothing stands out in a positive or negative sense for this race but, again, the Sire/Dam data is interesting and Fair Eva’s sire is, once again, Frankel. Even though the data for Frankels’ offspring is the same as yesterday’s the comparison is worth looking at with the others in the same race.

So, there you have it. The value selection is Fair Eva.

Result:Fair Eva came fifth at 8/1.

CSV Results: April 2016

The Results for April 2017, in a handy CSV format file, is now ready for download from the Archive server.

As ever, please log in to the members’ area first before entering the archives. Thank you.

Newmarket 3.35 – 2000 Guineas

There`s nothing that really stands out at the top of the ratings that looks good on the price though looking down the ratings one does look interesting and is available at 30 on Betfair: LANCASTER BOMBER.

I understand that it may be a pace maker for Churchill (both O`Brien`s yard) but there is still a good chance of it getting placed. Having said that, the role of pacemaker may fall to Spirit of Valor.

The figures of the recent runs of Lancaster Bomber look positive for it and it`s the only horse where the Class and Weight Differentials are looking good.

Lancaster has the best Going Differential and three underscores with the Trainer, Conn and Cls. The Lst figure is emboldened making it a ranked value.

There`s nothing wrong with the figures but the only concern is, perhaps, how the horse could be used in the race. But at 30s it is worth an each-way punt? Perhaps, yes.

The race has added interest in that two of the great Frankel’s progeny are running; Eminent and Dream Castle. The latest Sire figures for the race are as follows.

The two horses, offspring of Frankel, are shown here. These tables are looking at the data of all of the sires of the horses in the race. Since Frankel’s offspring are underlined (well, one of them is: the other needn’t be as it’s the same data) we’ll look at this data.

This is telling us that the strike rate (bottom table) for Frankel’s offspring is overall 26.5% but if we look at the top table we can see that the ROI% (i.e. the percentage profit/loss to level stakes at staring price) shows a loss of 9.5%. But if we look at the same race type as today, which is looking only on at Flat racing, we can see that Frankel’s offspring make a smaller loss of 5.9% but on today’s forecast going they make a profit of 16.9%.

Even more interesting is the Going & Distance of Frankel’s offspring. The strike rate (bottom table again) shows that 22.2% win but the ROI is a massive 77% profit. Running in a race similar to today’s race class (our race class not the diseased BHA classification) shows a 35% profit and a 22% strike rate.

Something to watch out for today.

Update: In the last half hour before the race the price on Lancaster Bomber has dropped from 30.0 to 21.0.

Result: Lancaster Bomber came in fourth, a head behind the third placed horse and one and a half lengths behind the top rated winner, Churchill.