There`s nothing that really stands out at the top of the ratings that looks good on the price though looking down the ratings one does look interesting and is available at 30 on Betfair: LANCASTER BOMBER.
I understand that it may be a pace maker for Churchill (both O`Brien`s yard) but there is still a good chance of it getting placed. Having said that, the role of pacemaker may fall to Spirit of Valor.
The figures of the recent runs of Lancaster Bomber look positive for it and it`s the only horse where the Class and Weight Differentials are looking good.
Lancaster has the best Going Differential and three underscores with the Trainer, Conn and Cls. The Lst figure is emboldened making it a ranked value.
There`s nothing wrong with the figures but the only concern is, perhaps, how the horse could be used in the race. But at 30s it is worth an each-way punt? Perhaps, yes.
The race has added interest in that two of the great Frankel’s progeny are running; Eminent and Dream Castle. The latest Sire figures for the race are as follows.
The two horses, offspring of Frankel, are shown here. These tables are looking at the data of all of the sires of the horses in the race. Since Frankel’s offspring are underlined (well, one of them is: the other needn’t be as it’s the same data) we’ll look at this data.
This is telling us that the strike rate (bottom table) for Frankel’s offspring is overall 26.5% but if we look at the top table we can see that the ROI% (i.e. the percentage profit/loss to level stakes at staring price) shows a loss of 9.5%. But if we look at the same race type as today, which is looking only on at Flat racing, we can see that Frankel’s offspring make a smaller loss of 5.9% but on today’s forecast going they make a profit of 16.9%.
Even more interesting is the Going & Distance of Frankel’s offspring. The strike rate (bottom table again) shows that 22.2% win but the ROI is a massive 77% profit. Running in a race similar to today’s race class (our race class not the diseased BHA classification) shows a 35% profit and a 22% strike rate.
Something to watch out for today.
Update: In the last half hour before the race the price on Lancaster Bomber has dropped from 30.0 to 21.0.
Result: Lancaster Bomber came in fourth, a head behind the third placed horse and one and a half lengths behind the top rated winner, Churchill.